5 reflections going into 2025
Looking back on a turbulent year
There is still a war in Europe. Donald J. Trump has been re-elected as the U.S. president. Every governing party facing an election in a developed country lost, including here in Lithuania. Our governing coalition now includes a party whose leader has made statements deemed antisemitic by the Constitutional Court. Definitely not a good year for political incumbents; the impact on democracy is TBD.
2024 proved to be another impressive year for AI, from Claude 3.5 to video generation to OpenAI’s o3. Despite talk of an AI slowdown, I think it’s too soon to make that call—even if progress has been less dramatic. Metaculus now predicts the “first general AI system” will arrive in 2031, only slightly later than their 2030 forecast at the beginning of the year. To me, the lesson is: Don't bet against AI progress. Brace for the wild ride ahead.
The top three posts here on Inexact Science were “Is capitalism making you lonely?” (#1), “Cowen's First Law is an epistemological superpower” (#2), and “Don't update too much on money-happiness correlations” (#3). 2024 was a busy year personally and professionally, so I only published 10 posts, but I’m happy about their quality. Inexact Science's subscribers grew from 61 on January 1, 2024, to 242 today. Many thanks to all of the readers out there.
My reading was pretty escapist this year. Some books that stood out are “Project Hail Mary” by Andy Weir (really fun sci-fi), “The Name of the Wind” by Patrick Rothfuss (really fun fantasy), and “The End of Loneliness” by Benedict Wells (really fun bildungsroman). Music-wise, the artist I listened to the most in 2024 was Petey. According to Spotify, I’m in the top 1% of all Petey listeners worldwide—a badge I wear proudly. Seeing Petey live in Manchester with my wife in May was unforgettable.
Although the world was turbulent, personally, 2024 was a very good year. A key highlight was a major home renovation my wife and I undertook. The renovation went very smoothly, with no major surprises (which was, well, surprising). We did a house swap with friends in Berlin. We planted an alpine garden. We spent a lot of time with friends and family. I hope we continue these experiences into the new year.
Thank you for reading Inexact Science, and a happy 2025 to you all.