Archive - Inexact Science

Why no one agrees on p(doom)

Reference class problem coupled with weak evidence makes for radical uncertainty

Jun 30

March 2025

15 notes from a month in Japan

Returning after two decades away

Mar 26

February 2025

Eventually, there's always a trade-off

Why self-help can't solve everything

Feb 5

December 2024

5 reflections going into 2025

Looking back on a turbulent year

Dec 31, 2024

October 2024

You just read a new study. How much should you update?

Here's what Bayes' Theorem tells you

Oct 14, 2024

August 2024

Is capitalism making you lonely?

There's a loneliness epidemic. Is capitalism to blame? Here's what the data says.

Aug 13, 2024

July 2024

Don't update too much on money-happiness correlations

Survey evidence on money vs. happiness isn't that informative. A simulation model to make some sense of it all.

Jul 30, 2024

Deep vs fast thinking

A parable of scholars and firefighters

Jul 8, 2024

June 2024

Most ideas fail, and that's fine

On Camus and A/B tests

Jun 18, 2024

May 2024

Are 10x happiness boosts possible?

10% happier vs 10x happier

May 31, 2024

March 2024

Cowen's First Law is an epistemological superpower

A simple idea to become a better thinker

Mar 27, 2024

Does a hundred wrongs make one right?

How a bet over lunch changed behavioral economics forever

Mar 4, 2024

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