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You just read a new study. How much should you update?
Here's what Bayes' Theorem tells you
Oct 14
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You just read a new study. How much should you update?
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August 2024
Is capitalism making you lonely?
There's a loneliness epidemic. Is capitalism to blame? Here's what the data says.
Aug 13
51
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Is capitalism making you lonely?
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12
July 2024
Don't update too much on money-happiness correlations
Survey evidence on money vs. happiness isn't that informative. A simulation model to make some sense of it all.
Jul 30
4
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Don't update too much on money-happiness correlations
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Deep vs fast thinking
A parable of scholars and firefighters
Jul 8
6
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Deep vs fast thinking
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June 2024
Most ideas fail, and that's fine
On Camus and A/B tests
Jun 18
5
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Most ideas fail, and that's fine
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May 2024
Are 10x happiness boosts possible?
10% happier vs 10x happier
May 31
2
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Are 10x happiness boosts possible?
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March 2024
Cowen's First Law is an epistemological superpower
A simple idea to become a better thinker
Mar 27
28
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Cowen's First Law is an epistemological superpower
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7
Does a hundred wrongs make one right?
How a bet over lunch changed behavioral economics forever
Mar 4
3
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Does a hundred wrongs make one right?
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4
January 2024
The drunkard and the lady
The philosophy of random walks
Jan 23
5
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The drunkard and the lady
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1
December 2023
F**k personal branding
An opinionated manifesto
Dec 13, 2023
4
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F**k personal branding
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3
The case for narrow utilitarianism
Taken to extremes, utilitarianism is dangerous. The core ideas, though, are sound. A personal reflection.
Dec 8, 2023
5
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The case for narrow utilitarianism
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November 2023
More info, more problems
How we ran a forecasting experiment
Nov 16, 2023
2
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More info, more problems
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